Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity, Inc. v. Raffensperger

• Docket Number: Civil Action 1:21-CV-05337-SCJ,1:21-CV-05339-SCJ,1:22-CV-00122-SCJ
• Decision Date: 26 October 2023
• Parties: ALPHA PHI ALPHA FRATERNITY INC., et al., Plaintiffs, v. BRAD RAFFENSPERGER, in his official capacity as Secretary of State of Georgia, Defendant. COAKLEY PENDERGRASS et al., Plaintiffs, v. BRAD RAFFENSPERGER et al., Defendants. ANNIE LOIS GRANT et al., Plaintiffs, v. BRAD RAFFENSPERGER et al., Defendants. 2012 Congressional Plan Reock Score 2012 Congressional Plan Polsby-Popper Score Reock Score Polsby-Popper Score %AP Black District Reock Score Polsby-Popper Score District Reock Score Enacted Plan Polsby-Popper Polsby-Popper Mean: # of individuals whose district is unchanged AP BVAP District Enacted Districts Reock Districts Reock Districts Polsby- Reock Popper Reock Polsby-Popper Polsby-Popper Polsby-Popper Polsby-Popper Illustrative Plan Polsby-Popper
• Court: U.S. District Court — Northern District of Georgia

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ALPHA PHI ALPHA FRATERNITY INC., et al., Plaintiffs,
v.
BRAD RAFFENSPERGER, in his official capacity as Secretary of State of Georgia, Defendant.

COAKLEY PENDERGRASS et al., Plaintiffs,
v.
BRAD RAFFENSPERGER et al., Defendants.

ANNIE LOIS GRANT et al., Plaintiffs,
v.
BRAD RAFFENSPERGER et al., Defendants.

Civil Action Nos. 1:21-CV-05337-SCJ, 1:21-CV-05339-SCJ, 1:22-CV-00122-SCJ

United States District Court, N.D. Georgia, Atlanta Division

October 26, 2023

OPINION AND MEMORANDUM OF DECISION

HONORABLE STEVE C. JONES UNITED STATES DISTRICT JUDGE

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

OPINION AND MEMORANDUM OF DECISION .......................................................... 8

I. FINDINGS OF FACT ........................................................................................... 10

A. Procedural History ....................................................................................... 13

1. Initial Filings ................................................................................................... 13

2. Preliminary Injunction ................................................................................... 15

3. Discovery and Summary Judgment ............................................................ 18

4. Trial ................................................................................................................... 19

5. Post-Trial Proceedings ................................................................................... 21

B. The Named Parties .......................................................................................... 21

1. Alpha Phi Alpha Plaintiffs ............................................................................ 21

a) Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity, Inc. . ........................................................ 21

b) Sixth District African Methodist Episcopal Church ......................... 22

c) Individually-named Plaintiffs in the APA case ................................. 23

2. Pendergrass Plaintiffs .................................................................................... 23

3. Grant Plaintiffs ................................................................................................ 24 4. Defendants ....................................................................................................... 26

a) Brad Raffensperger ................................................................................ 26

b) The State Election Board ....................................................................... 27

C. History of Race and Voting in Georgia .................................................... 30

D. Georgia's Changing Demographics ........................................................... 32

1. Georgia's Total Population ........................................................................... 32

2. Metro Atlanta .................................................................................................. 34

3. The Black Belt .................................................................................................. 37

a) Eastern Black Belt Region ..................................................................... 38

b) Metro-Macon Region ............................................................................. 39

c) Southwestern Georgia Region ............................................................. 40

E. Georgia 2021 Enacted Plans ........................................................................ 40

1. The 2021 Redistricting Process ..................................................................... 40

a) Legislative activities .............................................................................. 40

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b) Map drawing process ............................................................................ 44

2. Enacted Plan Statistics ................................................................................... 47

a) Congressional Plan ................................................................................ 47

(1) 2012 Congressional plan ................................................................... 47

(2) Enacted Congressional Plan ............................................................. 50

b) State Senate Plan .................................................................................... 52

c) State House Plan .................................................................................... 56

F. Illustrative Plans .......................................................................................... 61

1. Credibility Determinations ........................................................................... 61

a) Mr. William S. Cooper .......................................................................... 61

b) Mr. Blakeman B. Esselstyn ................................................................... 65

c) Mr. John B. Morgan ............................................................................... 67

d) Dr. Maxwell Palmer ............................................................................... 72

e) Dr. Lisa Handley .................................................................................... 73

f) Dr. John Alford ....................................................................................... 76

2. Illustrative Congressional Plan .................................................................... 78

a) First Gingles Precondition ..................................................................... 78

(1) Mr. Cooper's process in drawing the maps ................................... 78

(2) Illustrative Congressional Plan ........................................................ 81

b) Second and Third Gingles Preconditions ............................................ 93

3. Cooper Legislative Plans ............................................................................... 95

a) Mr. Cooper's process in drawing the maps ....................................... 95

b) Cooper Senate Plan ................................................................................ 98

(1) Empirical measures ............................................................................ 99

(2) Core retention ................................................................................... 104

(3) Incumbent pairing ............................................................................ 105

(4) Racial considerations ....................................................................... 105

c) Cooper House Plan .............................................................................. 107

(1) Empirical measures .......................................................................... 108

(2) Core retention ................................................................................... 113

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(3) Incumbent pairings .......................................................................... 114

(4) Racial considerations ....................................................................... 114

4. Esselstyn Legislative Plans .......................................................................... 115

a) Mr. Esselstyn's map drawing process .............................................. 115

b) Esselstyn Senate Plan .......................................................................... 117

(1) Empirical measures .......................................................................... 118

(2) Core retention ................................................................................... 126

(3) Incumbent Pairings .......................................................................... 127

(4) Racial Considerations ...................................................................... 128

c) Esselstyn House Plan .......................................................................... 132

(1) Empirical measures .......................................................................... 133

(2) Core retention ................................................................................... 141

(3) Incumbent Pairings .......................................................................... 141

(4) Racial Considerations ...................................................................... 142

G. Second and Third Gingles Preconditions .............................................. 142

1. Pendergrass: Dr. Palmer's methodology .................................................. 142

2. Alpha Phi Alpha: Dr. Handley's methodology ....................................... 145

3. Grant: Dr. Palmer's methodology .............................................................. 151

H. Georgia's History of Voting and Recent Electoral Developments 155

1. Credibility Determinations ......................................................................... 155

a) Dr. Orville Vernon Burton .................................................................. 156

b) Dr. Loren Collingwood ....................................................................... 158

c) Dr. Adrienne Jones .............................................................................. 159

d) Dr. Traci Burch ..................................................................................... 161

e) Dr. Jason Morgan Ward ...................................................................... 163

2. Analysis .......................................................................................................... 164

II. CONCLUSIONS OF LAW ................................................................................. 164

A. Jurisdictional Considerations .................................................................. 164

1. Constitutional Standing...